UFC 102 Preview:
UFC 102: 10 Years in the Making
Saturday brings us another phenomenal fight card stacked with contenders and ready-to-be-exposed pretenders for our viewing pleasure. While trying to showcase the heavyweight division for the first time in quite a while, the UFC is taking a risk that these matchups will provide stoppages and not seriously gassed big guys dragging us to decisions with them. Obviously with Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira as the main event, as well as the UFC’s first venture into Oregon, ZUFFA made sure to bring the goods with them for UFC 102.
The Main Card:
Brandon Vera (10-3) v Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1)
In a battle of former heavyweights, Brandon Vera and Krzysztof Soszynski are both trying to make some space for themselves in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. For Soszynski, this will be his toughest test to date inside the Octagon, and for Vera this fight will be business as usual. Vera has had a rocky road getting here, but if his performance against an admittedly outmatched Mike Patt, Soszynski needs to bring his A-game tonight if he wants the leave on his feet. A great first fight to see, after these two feel each other out get ready for a bomb fest.
Vera has superior striking and grappling, but Soszynski has shown improvement in every fight he has been in, and as cerebral as he is as a fighter, he will definitely have a solid gameplan come 10pm EST. Vera needs to do what he does best, get in and out with his striking, keeping his attacks varied so that Soszynski can’t get comfortable. If he can do that, look for this fight to be over early. For Soszynski’s part, he needs to get in Vera’s face and stay there. Vera has shown an inability to deal with fighters when they take the fight to him, and for Soszynski to be victorious, he needs to be prepared to do that for the entire 15 minutes. Either way should be a great fight and MMA fans everywhere should be thankful the UFC has someone like match-maker Joe Silva in their corner.
Prediction: Vera via TKO R1
Nate Marquardt (28-8-2) v Demian Maia (11-0)
This fight is going to answer a lot of questions about submission aficionado Demian Maia as he takes his first real step up into contender territory as he faces Nate Marquardt. There is no secret that Nate wants to stand and Maia wants to take it to the ground, this fight will be a matter of who can implement their gameplan to the fullest. Another fight of many that will surely not disappoint on UFC 102.
Nate has been in the game literally forever, and he has faced the best in the world on numerous occasions, and that experience alone gives him a huge edge over Maia. If he can stick to his gameplan, which trainer Greg Jackson is sure to have hammered into his brain, Maia will have a really tough time getting Marquardt to the ground. Even if he can, there is a good chance he will eat more leather than in his entire career combined. The other concern for Maia is that Marquardt is the most skilled grappler that he has faced, so tooling him the way he has the other middleweights he has faced probably won’t be in the cards. You never know though, with his ability, Maia just might be the world beater that the middleweight division has waited for to bring it to MW kingpin Anderson Silva.
Prediction: Marquardt wins via TKO R1
Chris Leben (18-6) v Jake Rosholt (5-1)
In a fight sure to fully expose Jake Rosholt for good, Chris Leben is set to face the All-American wrestler in his Team Quest home of Oregon. After two abysmal showings, one in the WEC and one in the UFC, Rosholt still somehow has a hype wagon that will not stop, but the “Crippler” is standing on the tracks waiting to take all on-comers and end that ride once and for all. A classic striker v wrestler matchup, this could be the beating of the century.
With Rosholt’s insane wrestling ability, he will certainly want to take this to the ground and work his ground and pound, as at this point in his young career, that’s his only option. What he has fallen victim to, however, is his gas tank failing him as the fight wears on, as well as his elementary striking skills not stopping his face from getting pounded. That’s where Leben comes into play. Training out of Team Quest, Leben has excellent takedown defense, and unless he carelessly falls into a choke, he will pick Rosholt apart, most likely sending him to a smaller promotion to regroup and work on his still-developing tools. Look for Rosholt to look a lot like the elephant man after this fight.
Prediction: Leben wins via KO R2
Keith Jardine (14-5-1) v Thiago Silva (13-1)
The co-main event tonight features Keith Jardine and Thiago Silva, a tough matchup for both fighters. In Silva’s first fight since being knocked out by LHW god lyoto Machida, he will have his hands full with a very unorthodox yet well rounded fighter in Jardine. A fight that could easily see the judges have to pick a winner, this is definitely a fight worth watching, if only for the ATT vs. Team Jackson camp challenge.
Silva is a black belt in BJJ, but even still has big power in his striking and has good agility for his size. Jardine has better striking but lacking as much power, but he is also very competent on the ground, so should the fight go there, there could easily be a stalemate as neither man can get through the solid defense of the other. It should be a spirited fight, but I just don’t see this fight ending any way other than by the final bell. Jardine is just a little bit better than Silva, and that will prove him the victor.
Prediction: Jardine wins via Unanimous Decision
Randy Couture (16-9) v Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1)
Well, here it is, the fight both men have wanted since they enter into the Rings tournament in Japan in 2000. Fortunately for Couture, there is no tournament brackets separating them this time. As with all fights long overdue, at these fighters’ ages and considering the beatings they have taken during their illustrious careers, this matchup has lost a little luster, and by little I mean a miniscule amount. Fighting in Oregon for the first time in his career, this should be a big advantage for Couture, but everyone person who has counted Nog out usually ends up tapping to him.
You have to really hope the rumors of Nog getting KO’ed multiple times during training aren’t true, as it could be a painful fight to watch as an MMA fan. Considering the guy has lived off of taking beatings and still pulling out the victory, it will be a shame when his chin officially goes. Randy is going to try and beat Nog up, as there is no reason to go to the ground with the BJJ black belt. Randy is always a gamer and very heady when it comes to fight plans, and at the end of the day his will be superior. Here’s hoping that neither man goes down brutally.
Prediction: Couture wins via TKO R3
The Undercard:
Marcus Aurelio (18-7) v Evan Dunham (8-0)
A great way to start any fight night, Marcus Aurelio will make his return to the UFC with a stiff test against undefeated Evan Dunham. Coming off two wins since being cut from the UFC, Aurelio looks to get back in form at the highest level, but he better not be sleeping on Dunham because the kid has serious skills. Even though he didn’t show it in his UFC debut at UFC 95 against Per Eklund, Dunham has good kicks to go along with his boxing, and he needs to make sure to mix it when going against surely his toughest test to date. As for the ground fight, Dunham has proven that regardless of your belt color, he can dominate all positions, and his full guard ground and pound brutality is reminiscent of a prime Tito Ortiz.
Aurelio will have to work wherever the fight goes to be successful on Saturday, and he cannot rely solely on his grappling prowess considering Dunham’s ground skill. Even with Aurelio’s new found striking power, he will want to gain top position and work from there as opposed to boxing with Dunham, who has the edge in the standup department. This fight will be a battle of wills, and I’m not sure either will be able to finish the other, look for Aurelio to eek out a hard fought decision
Prediction: Aurelio wins via Unanimous Decision
Mark Munoz (5-1) v Nick Catone (7-1)
In my pick for snoozer of the evening, wrestlers Mark Munoz and Nick Catone will face off to see who can implement their gameplan, which will look very similar, and wrestle their way to victory. Both fighters are coming off their first career loses, for Munoz in his UFC debut, so UFC 102 is a big opportunity for both to get back into the winning column. This will be Munoz’s first fight at middleweight, so depending on how he looks today, the weight cut could be an issue come fight time, but training with Urijah Faber will keep anyone in shape.
Catone has proven that he has good wrestling, but is very susceptible to being caught in submissions. That being said, he will not have to worry about that with Munoz, whose MO is to take him down and pound on him. Size will be a huge factor here, so Catone will be careful not to end up on his back if possible. We have seen these wrestler v wrestler matchups turn into boxing matches from time to time, and that very well could be the way this fight goes down. Unfortunately for us sloppy striking can be just as bad as lay-on fests, so here’s hoping someone gets put to sleep before I do.
Prediction: Munoz wins via TKO R3
Tim Hague (10-1) v Todd Duffee (4-0)
As we have seen recently, see: the upcoming TUF season 10, the UFC is bringing in bigger and bigger heavyweights to the table, and these two beasts are no different. Tim Hague played the role of spoiler in his UFC debut against Pat Berry, a fighter who was heavily favored right up until he fell into a rudimentary guillotine. Hague was taking a pounding before capitalizing on the Berry mistake, but showed his heart and guts in pulling out the victory. Duffee, for his part, is the new breed of MMA heavys, combining speed with a monstrous frame, and keep your fingers crossed that we get to see this one because it will not disappoint.
Despite his youth, Duffee comes from ATT, so you know that he has been sparring and learning from some top fighters and coaches in the world. He brings good wrestling and heavy hands, and as long as his gas tank holds up, he ones of the toughest young heavyweights out there. Hague will need to keep his chin down at all times, which he has been prone to forget as the fight wears on, but he has also shown a great ability to get hit in the face and be unfazed. His takedown skills will need to be in top form, as he would be better off getting Duffee down and working from there to pound him out or submit him than standing and trading. Hopefully this one’s quick so that we can see it on the PPV, because odds are it’ll be a slugfest.
Prediction: Duffee wins via TKO R1
Justin McCully (9-4-2) v Mike Russow (11-1)
In another heavyweight contest, Justin McCully will look to pick up his third UFC victory as he takes on Chicago’s Mike Russow. Russow is an impressive 11-1, and while his competition hasn’t been top level, he’s in the same boat with McCully in that department. You would think that considering both fighters have been fighting pro for over 11 years that their record would be a little longer, but with Russow only actively fighting starting in 2006, and McCully taking most of the early 2000’s off, here we are.
Both guys are well versed in submissions, but Russow is the heavy favorite in this department as he can finish the fight with a number of holds. McCully is more of a lingerer, and against a submission whiz like Russow that’s never a good thing. Look for MCully attempt to keep it standing, only to have Russow take him down, pound on him a bit, then finish it will an armlock. It is Russow’s first fight in the Octagon though, and you can just never tell what the jitters are going to do until you’re knee deep in them.
Prediction: Russow wins via Keylock R1
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4) v Chris Tuchscherer (17-1)
At the moment Gabriel Gonzaga is in the unfortunate position of potential heavyweight gatekeeper. At 5-3 in the UFC, Gonzaga has had his ups and downs, and aside from his Crocop punting, has looked less like a contender and more like a stepping stone. Granted, he is the first person to rock the freight train called Shane Carwin, breaking his nose in the process, he has not seemed to live up to the hype when it is all said and done. Tuchscherer, for his part, is an extremely tough guy who hits very hard, but for a debut fighter to go against a guy like Gonzaga, well that’s a tall order. His only loss has come against an always game Travis Wiuff in a one round affair, but one thing is for certain, Gabriel Gonzaga will be by far the toughest challenge he has faced in his mixed martial arts career.
Tuchscherer has shown that he is willing to stand and trade with anyone, and Gonzaga will be happy to oblige, but it is on the ground that Tuchscherer will be in deep trouble. With Gonzaga’s grappling and submission ability, there is no reason to think that this fight does anything but end up on the ground with Tuchscherer tapping in the first period. As previously stated, Gonzaga brings more to the table than any other fighter Tuchscherer has faced, and that, coupled with Gonzaga’s cage experience, will make for a rude awaking for Tuchscherer in his Octagon debut.
Prediction: Gonzaga wins via Armbar R1
Ed Herman (15-7) v Aaron Simpson (5-0)
Coming back after being cut from the UFC, Ed Herman looked strong in his return fight against David Loiseau, but he needs to be on point to get by up-and-comer Aaron Simpson. Now that the UFC is invading the Northwest, they needed some hometown talent to juice up the card: enter Ed Herman, the “Second Chance Kid,” who may soon be seen as “The Sacrificial Lamb.” Simpson was supposed to fight Herman and UFC fight night 19, but an injured James Irvin caused the UFC to switch Herman to face Wilson Gouveia. Gouveia, in turn was injured, and the Simpson fight became a reality again, this time at UFC 102.
With only five fights to his name, Simpson is still an unknown commodity, but with the performances he has put on under the ZUFFA banner, a KO over David Avellan in the WEC and a TKO over Tim McKenzie in his UFC debut, he has shown that given the right opponents he could be a world beater. While Herman has been around the fight game and trains out of Team Quest, he is going to have his hands full on Saturday. Simpson is explosive and hits hard, but Herman has shown that unless you can choke him out, he will be in there until the end. Standing favors Simpson, but it’s too soon to tell if he has any ground skill, skills that Herman certainly knows well enough to be dangerous.
Prediction: Simpson via Unanimous Decision
UFC 101 Preview:
While obviously not the blockbuster card that its predecessor was, the UFC 101 undercard takes a different tone in featuring mostly young up-and-comers, but keep your fingers crossed because we just might get to see a Fight of the Night Candidate should time allow. There is a reason that Joe Silva is the top matchmaker in all of MMA and one of the top commodities of the UFC, and that’s because he shows time and time again that no matter how wrong you might think he is on any particular fight pairing, odds are its going to be a barn-burner. After all, the UFC did not get to where it is today by putting on boring fights.
The Breakdown:
Danillo Villefort (9-2) v Jesse Lennox (10-1)
This fight features two fighters both making their Octagon debut, but second fight with ZUFFA after successfully picking up victories at WEC 38. Both come from top level camps, Villefort from ATT and Lennox from MFS, and have amassed very impressive records in their short careers. Both fighters also competed in the now defunct IFL, so while there may still be the jitters many debut fighters experience on the big stage, these two should be able to settle quickly.
Villefort is heavily versed in BJJ and has shown consistently that if you go to the ground with him, there’s a good chance he is going to have his way with you. He also has the much more varied strikes standing, mixing up punches, kicks, and knees very fluidly, and while he doesn’t have knockout power in his hands, you will know you’ve been hit. The big question mark for him is his chin, as both of his loses have come by way of TKO, and Lennox will be sure to test it come Saturday night.
Lennox is a part of the new era of MFS, but don’t let that convince you that his skills are any different than the majority of animals that come out of Davenport. He is an extremely tough wrestler, but his boxing puts him at the top of the Miletich class, combining power with speed and a willingness to exchange bombs and hope for the best. His only loss was to Villefort teammate Emyr Bussade, who went for a kneebar to end it, a submission Villefort knows all too well.
Villefort needs to move in and out when striking with Lennox, and make sure to not get into a brawl with him, because his chin will most likely give out before Lennox’s does, but he won’t be concerned about being taken down as his BJJ will keep Lennox guessing as to what limb to protect whenever they are on the mat. Lennox needs to keep pressing the action standing, and remember to keep his chin down when throwing his combos. If he can keep it on the feet, he could blister Villefort early and often in route to a stoppage, but if he wants to take him down, he needs to stay tight and work for position before all else.
Prediction: Villefort wins via tapout due to rear naked choke R2
George Roop (9-4) v George Sotiropoulos (9-2)
These George’s are both TUF alums, with Roop losing in the semifinals of season 8 to Philip Nover and Sotiropoulos losing in the semifinals of season 6 to Tommy Speer. Each has two UFC fights under their belt and is looking to put on a solid performance with potential contract renewals on the horizon. Sotiropoulos is one of the only men who has had Aoki wrapped around his leg for a full 5 minutes and lived to tell about it. Unfortunately for him, he fell into Aoki’s other finishing move early in the second round when he accidentally kicked him in the groin. Look no further than Aoki’s record to see that if you strike him illegally, he is going to opt for the DQ win. Even so, that fight showed just how skilled Sotiropoulos is on the ground, and he has the BJJ tournament titles to back it up.
Unless Roop can catch Sotiropoulos with a tire iron or hand grenade, he will be at a loss as to how to come out of this the victor. Sotiropoulos has better striking and if he wants to take it to the ground at any point, he can do that too. Roop needs to have all his wits about him, make sure to check every kick that comes his way, and hope he can get top control before he is face down on the canvas. Look for Roop at your local promotion in the months to come.
Prediction: Sotiroloupos wins via tapout due to guillotine R1
Matthew Riddle (2-0) v Dan Cramer (1-0)
Riddle and Cramer were both contestants on the 7th season of TUF, with Tim Credeur beating them both early in the tournament. These two are very young and inexperienced, but training out of Extreme Couture and ATT respectively, there is no doubt they are gamers.
Riddle will be too big for Cramer if and when this fight hits the mat. Cramer is still to one dimensional on the ground to be able to stop Riddle from getting top position and keeping him down. That being said, as he showed against Steve Bruno, Riddle’s southpaw stance leaves him wide open for hard straight rights, which Cramer can throw. Cramer will want to keep this standing to have a chance, and he needs to test Riddle’s chin early in the fight to see where he stands. Neither guy will worry about being submitted; most likely this fight will come down to who does more damage from the top.
Prediction: Riddle wins via unanimous decision
Thales Leites (14-2) v Alessio Sakara (13-7)
Having fought on the main card at more that a few UFC events already must make being on the undercard a hard pill to swallow for both Leites and Sakara, but here they are, ready to prove that one or both belong on the PPV broadcast. Leites wants to revive his fan base after a dismal performance against Middleweight Kingpin Anderson Silva, while Sakara is coming off a thunderous high kick KO victory that was on everyone’s top ten list of 2008.
Leites took this fight just days after his fight against Silva, so no doubt he is going to come in hungry to show that he belongs. If he is smart, he will take Sakara down and submit him in the first. However, with more and more fighters choosing to stand and trade, even when they shouldn’t, his pride could get the best of him and make this fight closer than it needs to be by trying to knock Sakara out. Sakara should be hoping for this, because as soon as it hits the mat, he’s got about 30 seconds.
Prediction: Leites wins via armbar R1
Tamdan McCrory (11-2) v John Howard (11-4)
Howard put on a gutsy performance in his Octagon debut in January against a game Chris Wilson, but he is in for the fight of his life against “The Barn Cat” on Saturday. McCrory claims to have a serious commitment to whopping ass, and he brings the submissions and the striking to back it up when he rides into the cage on his “Thunder Horse”. Both are very skilled on the ground and aren’t fans of going to the judges. Here’s hoping that this fight makes the broadcast because these guys bring it every time.
This is the fight that could make the undercard night for those in attendance. Both fighters have proven that they are balls to the wall every time they scrap, and Saturday should be no different. With the huge height and reach advantage that McCrory will have (6’4” vs. 5’7”) he will use that to keep Howard at bay with leg kicks and jabs. Howard needs to get inside and look to get McCrory to the ground where he can unleash some ground and pound to soften him up and then look for the submission. McCrory’s experience in the cage and length coupled with his submission grappling ability could prove to be too much for Howard, but either way this is going to be one hell of a fight.
Prediction: McCrory wins via TKO R2
Shane Nelson (12-3) v Aaron Riley (27-11-1)
This fight already happened at UFC 96, but after a horrible stoppage 44 seconds into the fight Nelson was declared the winner via TKO. Both fighters agreed the stoppage was bad and were interested in fighting again. While the NSAC looks to pass a new ruling for instant replay to be used so that these things don’t happen again, for now the fans are lucky that both parties agreed to this and ZUFFA made it happen.
For Nelson to win this fight, he is going to need to get the fight to the ground and stay on top for as long as possible. It’s yet to be seen how his submission game has evolved since training with Penn, but Riley is as crafty as they come so Nelson might have to resign himself to looking to pull out another decision victory. Then again, if he can catch him and follow up with strikes on the ground a legitimate TKO could be in order. Riley needs to keep it standing long enough to show Nelson that he has no business striking with him. If he can dominate the early stages, he should be able to stuff any takedown attempts that a frustrated Nelson can muster and finish him in the second or third when Nelson has lost all confidence in winning the fight, much the same way Escudero stopped him on TUF show.
Prediction: Riley wins via TKO R2
