We’re going to look at tonight’s match-ups from a purely betting perspective. Two tips to start us off.
1.Know your percentages.
We use this site to convert odds into percentages and figure out our plays from there. This allows a bettor to better understand how big a favorite a fighter is and how big an underdog a fighter is. For instance, a -200 fighter must win 66/67% of the time to cover your bet. A +200 underdog, only has to win 33.33% to cover your bet.
2. Don’t follow the movement in the lines except when it first comes out and the morning of the fight. Pay no attention to the line movement right before a fight.
Smart bettors do their research and know when a fighter is undervalued. These are the same people who took action on Shane Carwin the second he went up against Brock Lesnar (we put 3 units on Carwin +200), but we are not claiming to be smart–just quick to pull the trigger. After the lines correct right away, the smart money comes in at two more times. One, the morning of the fight. That’s when a lot of the top guys finalize their thoughts and want to lock in their bets especially on the guys they expect the public to back later in the day. Second, the seconds before the fight. Watch the lines right before they close. If all of the sudden you see a big jump one way, that means some big money probably came in on certain fighters. As a small-time bettor though, you can’t do this. The smart money are the guys who have the sportsbooks ears. They aren’t putting $20 dollar wagers on the internet, they are on the phone with the big name Vegas Sportsbook right before the action closes. Our advice, at the time being, either bet the night before the fight or wait until you see which way the line moves through the course of the day. A difference in -20 (-180 vs. -200) is huge over the course of a year, both on percentages and actual winnings. Good luck.
Main Card
Champ Lyoto Machida (-200) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (+160) for light heavyweight title
The late money is pouring in on “Shogun” and many professionals like Rua in the rematch and as such this line might keep falling. That said, we’re not sold. The last match-up had Machida at -500 and people felt that Rua might not be a worthy challenger. 5 close rounds and one good gameplan later, and everything has changed? Not buying it. Machida has shown that he is an adaptable fighter and did enough with Rua in the last one to make it close. This won’t be a blow out and might be another chess match but Machida defends his belt 2 out of every 3 times in this match-up and that’s enough to make this a good play.
Paul Daley (+190) vs. Josh Koscheck (-250)
Daley knocked Dustin Hazelett into oblivion in his last match. And while we love us some McLovin, it was Dustin’s worst loss since…Josh Koscheck where also got knocked out. Koscheck has a very obvious advantage in wrestling here and this fight could very well be the poor man’s version of St. Pierre-Hardy with Koscheck deciding to play it somewhat safer in order to get his title shot. And to be honest, that is the most likely course of action, because despite his willingness to fight anytime, anywhere, for Koscheck to get over his villain status in the UFC, he need to coach TUF. This is a driven man who is hungry for redemption not only in the Cage, but out of it. 3 out of 4 times Koscheck wins this thing by controlling the match on the ground for 3 rounds. He’s a solid pick anywhere under -250.
Jeremy Stephens (+160) vs. Sam Stout (-200)
Joe Silva must have smiled when making this fight. While neither fighter has huge name recognition, he must have known this would be a great fight for the hardcore, buy every PPV type. Both fighters come to compete every time and this has the potential to be a back and forth battle. However, Stout is the better fighter. He has the better record and the better resume. He has been improving more as of late, and I think this line is pretty accurate. We wouldn’t bet on Stout anything more than the -200 he’s currently sitting but if he falls even a little, he presents some value.
Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson (-120) vs. Matt Mitrione (-110)
One person called this the ultimate guilty pleasure fight, and we agree. These two brawlers were more of the entertaining members of what turned out to be a somewhat uninspired season of The Ultimate Fighter. However, remember this, Mitrione got worked by James McSweeney, using his experience against “Meathad”. Kimbo got worked by Roy Nelson, using his experience, against the Street Fighter. Both men have since changed their camps, worked hard, and both seem to be legitimate UFC fighters. However, Mitrione, if serious, has the ability to actually be a possible prospect. He’s had issues even in the NFL getting hurt, but he is huge. He will outweigh Kimbo by a good 30 lbs. in this fight. He also proved in the 3 fights we’ve seen, to have a pretty capable chin. Kimbo on the other hand, despite his legend, seems to have a tough time taking shots on the button. Make no mistake, this is a tough fight to pick because it depends so much on the learning curve. However, we will say this, the smart money is coming in hard on Mitrione. We value Mitrione as a slight favorite here, and put 2 units on him right at the outset at +150, but we won’t touch the current line as either guy is capable of taking the other one out at any given point.
Alan Belcher (-130) vs. Patrick Cote (even)
What an interesting match-up. Cote, in his last outing, lost to Anderson Silva, despite showing an incredible amount of heart and ending up with a knee-injury that has kept him out for over a year and a half. Belcher has looked very good in his last 3 fights including a controversial split-decision with Yoshihiro Akiyama. He’s talented on his feet, has a lot of confidence, and has appeared to learn enough on the ground to not get laid on. Cote on the other hand has been off for over a year and half and who knows where he is at in his career? However, before you get excited and bet Belcher, there is a problem. Cote has two wins over two guys Belcher has lost to (Kendall Grove and Jason Day). One of the best ways to compare fighters is to look at their results versus common opponents. Match-ups make fights, so this adage is not always true, but in this case, we see some insight. Cote absolutely crushed Grove and Day, with first-round stoppages due to strikes. Belcher was stopped by both Grove and Day somewhat early due to a submission (Grove) and Strikes (Day). No doubt, Belcher has improved as he has shown, but we feel very strongly that this history is indicative that Cote should actually be a slight favorite, even accounting for ring rust. As such, if you can get an even money play on Cote–take it. We’re putting 2 units on Cote at even, and hoping that his game has improved while resting his knee.
Preliminary Card
Joe Doerksen (+400) vs. Tom Lawlor (-600)
We’re staying away from this fight because while Lawlor has been impressive, Doerksen can work from the ground and negate Lawlor’s superior wrestling and ground and pound style. Even if Lawlor stays on his feet Doerksen has gotten some pretty good opponents to follow him to the mat. Lawlor should be the favorite, but with Doerksen aptitude for submissions, there is some value if you want to take a flier on an underdog. However, if Lawlor stays hungry and sticks with an on his feet gameplan, this could be an ugly knockout.
Marcus Davis (-600) vs. Jonathan Goulet (+400)
Marcus Davis had a bad night against Ben Saunders. Before that, he almost took out Dan Hardy. Goulet hasn’t fought much in the past couple of years and is probably only on the card due to his Canadian roots. He’s not a pushover, but this line is probably pretty close to right, unless Goulet changes his game-plan and stays away from Davis large advantage in striking.
T.J. Grant (+325) vs. Johny Hendricks (-500)
The sad thing about this line is that it might be right. T.J. Grant is a legit fighter, but Johny Hendricks is a legitimate prospect. In fact, some insiders are wondering why Hendricks isn’t being pushed a little harder given his wrestling background. That said, despite Grant not having a ton of name recognition, he is a worthy opponent and will push Hendricks. Grant has a good ground game and the majority of his career wins are by submission, but Hendricks should be able to negate any ground advantage Grant might have with his wrestling and positional awareness. Despite Grant’s knockout of the night award in his last outing, Hendricks probably enjoys an advantage in the striking as well, and for this reason, it appears the line is probably set about right.
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Tim Hague (-250)
How many times is a guy cut from the UFC brought in as a late replacement and then favored by more than 2-1 odds against a guy who last defeated one of the “up and coming” heavyweight prospects in the world? Joey Beltran shouldn’t be blamed for Rolles Gracies terrible performance. The truth is, we don’t know exactly what to make of Beltran yet. He was able to get out of Gracie’s back mount, and finish when he was supposed to finish, but that’s about all. Hague is a decent vet but he has gotten a lot of an experience win over Pat Barry where he slipped in a guillotine. Given Hague’s weight and experience advantage, and his Canadian roots (notice a theme here), he should be a favorite, but this line seems high. If it stays the same or goes any higher, we can understand a one unit flier on Beltran.
Mike Guymon (+235) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-295)
Honestly, who knows? This seems like a high line for Yoshida but Guymon is a wild card with no real notable victories…ever. Guymon is well known within the MMA Community and despite some person troubles, he obviously has enough talent that the UFC signed him. That said, Yoshida’s resume is even more confusing with a DQ win over Dan Hardy and a loss to an extremely overweight for the division Anthony Johnson. Yoshida hasn’t looked good against top competition, but Guymon isn’t that. We will expect that this line is set by people who know far more than we, but we’re staying away and you should too.
Jason MacDonald (-155) vs. John Salter (+125)
Finally, a line we can truly discuss. Wait, no. Salter has a decent background, with a NAGA Expert win, and submission over current TUF fighter James Hammortree. However, he’s inexperienced and lost to Gerald Harris, another fighter no one is really sure how to rank yet. Salter is back and it appears that the hope in this fight, is whoever Salter fights, the loser will be cut from the UFC. As a result, Macdonald is actually the 3rd opponent choice for Salter, following two others that could not compete. Macdonald though is an organization favorite and they could use a guy like him to test a few of their younger fighters if he wins. He isn’t a world-beater, but Macdonald knows how to fight and use his advantages, especially against guys who aren’t top competition. We actually think this is one of the worst lines on the card and are putting 3 units behind the more experienced Macdonald.
Good luck.
